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Paid off Duterte's China groveling tells wider story of his economic failures

Kowtowing to Xi Jinping was Philippine president's original sin


People stand outside shuttered businesses as they queue for free goods in Quezon city, Metro Manila, on Apr. 19: what Duterte forgot to look out for was the economy. © Getty Images


For a supposed tough guy, Rodrigo Duterte sure does love bending over for China -- again, and again, and again.

The Philippine president assumed the position right out of the gate. In July 2016, less than two weeks into a presidency that can match Donald Trump's for chaos, Manila won a major case against Beijing over contested waters in the South China Sea.


The suit, filed by predecessor Benigno Aquino, gave the Philippines big bragging rights in Asia. Kudos to Manila, geopolitical wonks said at the time, for taking on Beijing's bullying, David-and-Goliath style. Manila's landslide victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague put China on the defensive in a region that shudders at its might.

Never mind, tough guy Duterte essentially said. China's largess, starting with aid, loans, and joint oil and gas exploration deals, was just too sweet for the man promising to make the Philippines great again.

Now, Team Duterte is suffering seller's remorse as China flexes its military muscle in Asian seas. The clearest evidence? An expletive-heavy May 3 tweet by Foreign Minister Teodoro Locsin, shocking a global community that had become desensitized to Duterte's penchant for dropping F-bombs.

This dust-up might seem unrelated to Duterte's economic failures. Yet it is a timely reminder of why the Philippines might be among the region's biggest losers post COVID-19.

Kowtowing to Chinese President Xi Jinping was arguably Duterte's original sin. Still, the longtime Davao City mayor has also prostrated himself at home to the Marcos family, a gang whose influence predecessors had sought to reduce.

Duterte took power 30 years after Ferdinand Marcos was ousted from the presidential palace. A People Power revolt led by Corazon Aquino, widow of assassinated Marco challenger Benigno Aquino, ended the cartoonishly corrupt dictator's three-decade reign, and Aquino was elected national leader in 1986.

Reformists found some poetic justice in her son being the man to get the Philippine economy back on track. From 2010 to 2016, Aquino attacked graft, went after tax cheats, increased transparency and restored order to the national balance sheet. That scored Manila its first-ever investment-grade ratings.

Aquino harnessed that success to take on China's maritime land grabs. And all those military ports and landing strips Xi claims Beijing is not building -- against mountains of satellite-image evidence.

And then Duterte arrived to ease Xi's mind in hopes Beijing might throw the Philippines economy some scraps. Irony abounds when you consider Duterte's 22 years running a southern city famed for smashing crime -- like some sheriff Clint Eastwood might play. It earned him the nickname "Duterte Harry."
Rodrigo Duterte, right, is shown the way by Xi Jinping in Beijing in October 2016: Duterte arrived to ease Xi's mind. © Reuters

On Monday, hours after Locsin lobbed rhetorical bombs on Twitter, Duterte was again assuming the position. "China remains to be our benefactor," Duterte said. "Just because we have a conflict with China does not mean to say that we have to be rude and disrespectful."

This obsequiousness will seem at odds to the United Nations, former U.S. President Barack Obama, the European Union, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, the Pope, Holocaust survivors, women and everyone else Duterte has gone after.

An interesting question is how Joe Biden's arrival is throwing the Duterte-Xi bromance off balance. Though former President Trump played tough on China, the bull market in patents Beijing threw daughter Ivanka's way is a reminder of how Xi had his way with Trump, too.

Since Biden entered the White House in January, the U.S. signaled it has Manila's back. Last month, Team Biden hit China for using "maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations." Odds are, Biden also will stand with Scott Morrison's Australia and, increasingly, Jacinda Ardern's New Zealand in pushing back against Beijing's bullying.

If only Duterte had stood up to Beijing in 2016, his government might have a foreign-policy win or two to trumpet. If only at home Duterte had stuck to Aquino's guns. Duterte was elected to add firepower to Aquino's governance push, which morphed the Philippines into an investment darling. Instead, Duterte pivoted to a bloody war of choice against drug dealers.

Duterte's emphasis on speed-over-transparency with giant infrastructure projects has been great for the graft industry. On Aquino's watch, Manila's ranking in Transparency International's corruption perceptions index improved to 95th-place. Today, it is 115th, trailing Macedonia, Mongolia and Panama.

In this context, Duterte's odd obsession with the Marcos clan is a terrible look. He even gave plunderer Marcos, who died in exile in 1989, a hero's burial. He lobbied early and often to guide Ferdinand Marcos Jr. into the vice presidency.

What Duterte forgot to look out for was the economy. Mostly, he rested on laurels of the rapid growth Aquino bequeathed him. That, and whatever business "benefactor" Xi tossed Manila's way. Along with corruption returning, so is inefficiency. In 2016, the Philippines was ranked 42nd in the IMD World Competitiveness Scorecard. Today it is the 45th.

The most important failing grade, though, is COVID-19. Things are so bad that Duterte's government is asking Filipinos working abroad not to return home anytime soon as infections surge and quarantine-facility funds run low.

So is the confidence that Duterte, 1,771 chaotic days on the job, has what it takes for right an economy losing more and more ground. Somehow, I doubt continuing to roll over for Xi will save the day. Expletives are optional.

G7 scolds China and Russia over threats, bullying, rights abuses
Reuters / 06:26 AM May 06, 2021


Attendees take part in G7 foreign ministers meeting in London, Britain May 5, 2021. Ben Stansall/Pool via REUTERS

LONDON – The Group of Seven scolded both China and Russia on Wednesday, casting the Kremlin as malicious and Beijing as a bully, but beyond words there were few concrete steps aside from expressing support for Taiwan and Ukraine.

Founded in 1975 as a forum for the West’s richest nations to discuss crises such as the OPEC oil embargo, the G7 this week addressed what it perceives as the biggest current threats: China, Russia and the coronavirus pandemic.





G7 foreign ministers, in a 12,400-word communique, said Russia was trying to undermine democracies and threatening Ukraine while China was guilty of human rights abuses and of using its economic clout to bully others.

There was, however, little concrete action mentioned in the communique that would unduly worry either Chinese President Xi Jinping or Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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The G7 said it would bolster collective efforts to stop China’s “coercive economic policies” and to counter Russian disinformation – part of a move to present the West as a much broader alliance than just the core G7 countries.

“I think (China is) more likely to need to, rather than react in anger, it is more likely going to need to take a look in the mirror and understand that it needs to take into account this growing body of opinion, that thinks these basic international rules have got to be adhered to,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said.



Russia denies it is meddling beyond its borders and says the West is gripped by anti-Russian hysteria. China says the West is a bully and that its leaders have a post-imperial mindset that makes them feel they can act like global policemen.

China’s spectacular economic and military rise over the past 40 years is among the most significant geopolitical events of recent history, alongside the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union that ended the Cold War.

XI AND PUTIN

The West, which combined is much bigger than China and Russia economically and militarily, has struggled to come up with an 

effective response to either China or Russia.

“We will work collectively to foster global economic resilience in the face of arbitrary, coercive economic policies and practices,” the G7 ministers said on China.

They said they supported Taiwan’s participation in World Health Organization forums and the World Health Assembly – and expressed concerns about “any unilateral actions that could escalate tensions” in the Taiwan Strait.





China regards Taiwan as its own territory and opposes any official Taiwanese representation on an international level.

On Russia, the G7 was similarly supportive of Ukraine but offered little beyond words.

“We are deeply concerned that the negative pattern of Russia’s irresponsible and destabilising behaviour continues,” G7 ministers said.

“This includes the large build-up of Russian military forces on Ukraine’s borders and in illegally-annexed Crimea, its malign activities aimed at undermining other countries’ democratic systems, its malicious cyber activity, and (its) use of disinformation.”
VACCINES

On the coronavirus pandemic, the G7 pledged to work with industry to expand the production of affordable COVID-19 vaccines, but stopped short of calling for a waiver of intellectual property rights of major pharma firms.

“We commit to working with  industry  to facilitate expanded manufacturing at scale of affordable COVID-19  vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics and their component parts,” the G7 foreign ministers said in a joint statement.

They said the work would include “promoting partnerships between companies, and  encouraging voluntary licensing and tech transfer agreements on mutually agreed terms”.

The same commitment was communicated early on by US State Secretary Antony Blinken right after his confirmation, when he called Secretary Teddyboy Locsin, reaffirming the strong alliance between the US and the Philippines and the vital role this alliance plays in sustaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region. I have not seen this kind of unequivocal statement from the State Department and the White House in all my years dealing with the United States both in my private capacity and currently, as the Philippine ambassador to the United States.

Even President Joe Biden himself is cognizant of the special bond between the two nations and the shared interest in ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea – and that any armed attack on Philippine armed forces, aircraft or public vessels would trigger MDT obligations. The US has clearly stated that they recognize the 2016 arbitral ruling that rejected China’s sweeping claims within areas falling within the so-called nine-dash line as having “no basis in law.”

Along with this is the commitment made by the US to help modernize the Philippines’ armed forces and boost the country’s maritime capability. To this end, the US has offered to transfer five Cyclone-class vessels that will beef up the capability of the Philippine Navy to patrol its maritime territory and sustain operations in disputed areas.

A lot of Filipino Americans are pleased to see the Philippine Coast Guard asserting our sovereign rights when they warned – and drove away – Chinese militia vessels roaming around Sabina Shoal which is within our exclusive economic zone. The Philippine Coast Guard plans to beef up its personnel and is preparing to acquire more assets, including at least two multirole response vessels that they hope to receive from Japan, and offshore patrol vessels from France.

We informed Congressman Smith that we really welcome efforts from US partners and allies to help address global concerns and ensure freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region. For starters, the UK will be sending a full-strength carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, which will be traveling from May to December to the Gulf of Aden to the Arabian Sea, from the Indian Ocean to the Philippine Sea and will sail through the South China Sea. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace described the HMS Queen Elizabeth as “a floating piece of sovereign territory… a warship, a mothership, a surveillance reconnaissance ship, a convener of allies and partners and a great projector of Britain’s soft and hard power.”

As retired US Navy admiral James Stavridis noted, the British strike force’s planned stops in India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea “demonstrates the unity those allied nations are showing with the US in its growing rivalry with China.”

This was evident in the joint communique issued by the foreign ministers of the G7 countries – United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan – expressing “strong opposition to any unilateral actions that escalate tensions and undermine regional stability and the international rules-based order, such as the threat or use of force, large-scale land reclamation and building of outposts, as well as their use for military purposes.” Significantly, the G7 cited the 2016 arbitral award as a “useful basis for further efforts to peacefully resolve disputes in the South China Sea” – underscoring the recognition among nations that the PCA ruling is final and legally binding.

Short note on the vaccines: Through the intercession of the White House, two million doses of AstraZeneca and 1.3 million doses of the Pfizer vaccines will be delivered to the Philippines beginning mid-May through the COVAX facility as confirmed by Secretary Galvez. Moderna will begin delivery on June 21.